China's burgeoning wealth accepts a new leader.
Hu Jintao, China's Communist Party's general secretary for the past ten years, is set to stand down this week and pass over control of the country to his handpicked successor, Xi Jinping. Hotel
The ceremonial changing of China's guard began last week
when China's 18th Party Congress assembled in Beijing to say their adored
leader farewell. This once-every-five-year gathering of Communist intellectuals
was eagerly observed by 1.3 billion Chinese - and, of course, the rest of the
globe.
China's expanding high net worth individuals are perhaps
more interested in the larger implications of Hu's party message than anybody
else (HNWI). And the luxury goods and service providers who cater to this
burgeoning new affluent consumer.
Hu offered himself a laud eulogy last Thursday during a
hefty 100-minute lecture to his fellow partygoers, which also served as a
roadmap for Xi's period in government. This formal paper acknowledged nearly
every type of change sweeping China, including economic, social, political, and
environmental concerns. Hu even alluded to the potential of reducing China's
economic control.
Hu, on the other hand, made it apparent that he is
uninterested in radical changes to the existing quo. To put it another way,
China's growing democratization of wealth will be met with skepticism, and the
country's expanding number of millionaires and billionaires will have to keep a
low profile in the near future, to say the least.
China's new leadership, to be sure, has a lot on its plate.
Not only does Xi's dictatorship have to govern a much wealthier country, but it
also has to govern one that is far more complex.
China's population enjoys a significantly more developed
nation, larger overall household income, and less poverty thanks to three
decades of economic development that has hovered around 10 percent per year.
Nonetheless, today's socioeconomic disparity between
affluent and poor is enormous. Despite the fact that the gap shrank by 13%
under Hu's leadership, the World Bank estimates that 135 million Chinese, or
10% of the country's population, remain poor, living on less than $1 per day.
Meanwhile, China has produced tens of millions of new
millionaires. According to the most recent Hurun Report numbers, there were
1.02 million local Chinese billionaires (those with assets surpassing Yuan Renminbi
10 million or $1.6 million), up 6% over the previous year. Another 1,000 local
Chinese billionaires (equal to $150 million) were listed in the newest Hurun
China Rich List.
According to a recent research by Singapore-based
consultancy Wealth-X, the number of legitimate billionaires in China actually
decreased by 2% last year, from 150 to 147. The number of billionaires in the
United States, on the other hand, increased by 5.5 percent to 480 from 455 a
year ago, solidifying their position as the world's number one.
As a result of their wealth portfolios suffering due to
slowed growth and collapsing property markets, many of China's wealthiest have
lost their ravenous appetite for luxury goods. For example, after becoming the
world's second-largest diamond consumer last year, purchasing 10% of global
production (second only to the United States at 38%), diamond juggernaut De
Beers recently announced that China's annual rate of diamond consumption will
fall to 10% this year, down from 20% in 2011.
Meanwhile, Daimler AG announced last week that its
Mercedes-Benz division would miss its earnings target this year, and that
demand for the company's Porsche business would fall next year.
Despite the weakening economy, China's 11,245 UHNWIs (those
with a net worth of at least $30 million in assets, according to Wealth-X) have
definitely taken a more showy attitude to consumption, if for no other reason
than the Communist Party's impending change of guard.
As every wealthy Chinese knows, China's sphere of influence
can shift in an instant, and if you aren't careful, you could find yourself on
the wrong side of the equation (witness the fate of the Gang of Four in the
late 1970s and, more recently, disgraced ex-Communist party leader Bo Xilai).
So, what does the future hold for luxury goods and services
suppliers? The future of China's luxury retail sector, according to Wealth-X,
should be bright.
Despite signs of weakening, Wealth-X predicts that
"China will post double-digit luxury retail sales growth compared to single-digit
growth numbers for Europe and North America."
To enhance sales and offset growing brand fatigue among
mature luxury consumers in tier one cities, luxury purveyors are broadening
their commercial reach by expanding into second- and third-tier cities such as
Chengdu, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Nanjing, and Wuhan.
Furthermore, Chinese UHNW consumers are less price-sensitive
than their European counterparts, according to Wealth-X, and Chinese UHNW
individuals are increasingly traveling to European cities such as Paris and
London to purchase luxury items at up to a 40% discount while taking advantage
of an appreciating Chinese Yuan.
The lowering of visa rules for Chinese tourists encouraged
the luxury travel phenomena, according to Wealth-X. Furthermore, luxury
tourism's social cachet boosted its popularity among Chinese UHNWIs. This trend
may cause shops to raise the pricing of luxury goods sold in Europe in order to
make them more competitive in Mainland China.
These are just a few of the results from Wealth-"The
X's Global Chinese Luxury Consumer" special report.
Overall, Chinese UHNWIs are estimated to spend about $6
billion on luxury items this year (excluding real estate and services), and the
population and wealth of Chinese UHNWIs continue to expand.
According to the Wealth-X World Ultra Wealth Report
2012-2013, Asian UHNW wealth is predicted to expand at an annual rate of 7.9%
over the next five years, with China accounting for the majority of this
increase.
According to Wealth-X, China's economy will complete its
change from an investment-driven model to a consumption-led model as its
urbanization push continues and its middle class develops. The expansion of its
UHNW population and luxury expenditure is likely to be accelerated and
amplified as a result of this shift.
Xi and his new Communist Chinese counterparts will, of
course, have a say in the matter. Especially now that Hu, China's outgoing
leader, mentioned Communist China's founding three times in his goodbye speech
to the Party.
Hu stated that the Party "must resolutely not follow
Western political systems," referring to a phrase translated as "Mao
Zedong Thought," which was not discussed during the previous five-year
party congress. These concepts, according to Qian Gang of the China Media Project
at the University of Hong Kong, should not be taken lightly.
"It matters when they mention it," Qian told the
New York Times.
It'll only be a matter of time before the luxury retail
sector - and China's super-rich - understand what it all means.
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