Europe, Africa, and the Middle East Hotel investments are expected to reach $11 billion in 2012, fueled by bank restructurings.
According to the latest Hotel Investment Outlook study from Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, hotel investment activity in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) is likely to stay constant in 2012, with $11 billion in acquisitions projected, equal to the $10.9 billion in 2011. بي ام
Deals to restructure debt will fuel a lot
of this activity. Single asset deals will continue to drive the majority of
activity in 2012, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels.
Jon Hubbard, CEO of Jones Lang LaSalle
Hotels in Northern Europe, tells World Property Channel, "The widening
pricing disparity between primary and secondary properties, as well as the
narrower spectrum of what constitutes a premier asset, will be a recurring
trend in EMEA in 2012. High net worth individuals (HWNIs) and sovereign wealth
funds will continue to buy trophy hotels in major gateway cities in the prime
market. Despite their poor yields and high cost per key, such assets are seen
as a long-term investment. The majority of equity-rich investors will come from
the Middle East and Asia, and they will continue to pay record amounts for
high-quality assets."
In 2012, the UK is likely to remain the
most liquid market, with a minor increase in transaction activity. Distressed
capital structure agreements will drive this, as banks must meet tougher
capital requirements and uncertainty about the timing of capital value recovery
grows, making the hold option less appealing " In France and Germany,
transaction activity is likely to remain stable, with a possible increase over
2011 levels. Paris, like London, will continue to be the leading generator of
investment activity across all sectors. Investors in Germany are expected to
continue to prioritize assets in key cities with lower inherent risk, but they
will also consider secondary assets or secondary cities that offer higher
yielding investment opportunities ", said Christoph Härle, CEO of Jones
Lang LaSalle Hotels in Continental Europe.
In contrast, following the sale of the
Ritz-Carlton Moscow by Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels, Russia will experience a lack
of trophy sales, resulting in lower total transaction volumes than last year,
whereas Dubai is expected to benefit from its status as a safe haven and
attract some investor interest, given that occupancy has returned to 2008
levels this year.
Hotel operators are likely to become more
active purchasers on unencumbered assets in 2012, jointly investing with other
investors, while development continues to be hampered by a shortage of
financing. As they transition from a "asset light" to a "asset
right" approach, these companies will continue to buy hotels in strategic
areas to gain market share, increase market share, or build new brands.
Hubbard went on, "Softer yields will
also entice more private equity groups to enter the market. For those
investors, the increasing number of distressed assets coming onto the market,
selling at discounted prices with greater yields, will present opportunities.
Private equity funds will likewise be in disposition mode in 2012, as they have
expiring debt on their books that must be refinanced."
On the sell side, banks will continue to
play a key role, putting hotels into receivership and putting distressed assets
on the market. The UK Marriott portfolio of 42 assets, the Hyatt in Birmingham,
and the famed Belfry Hotel & Golf Resort are among the hotels that are
currently being sold and expected to transfer in 2012.
The shortage of debt will continue to be
the market's principal restriction in 2012, with loan-to-value ratios of 50
percent to 60 percent for developments and loan-to-construction-cost ratios of
roughly 50 percent. As a result, smaller lot sizes will continue to draw more
attention because they demand less cash.
"Despite government pressure to expand
lending, the sovereign debt crisis will persist into 2012, and there is no
realistic chance of major new debt arising in 2012. To reestablish confidence
in the financial markets, several countries will enact more austerity measures.
Western Europe's growth is expected to drop to 0.3 percent in 2012 due to high
private savings rates and limited bank lending availability. Due to the large
number of stocks available, investors will be required to be more selective in
their purchases "Härle came to a conclusion.
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